The Recession is Over - Time to Grow
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Conditions in housing markets were rather exceptional at the time. But in the downturn before that, typically associated with the implosion of the dotcom boom, housing also sounded an early alarm.
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Employment in residential construction peaked precisely a year before the start of the downturn. And now? Residential investment has been shrinking since the beginning of Employment in the housing sector has fallen since March.
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Things may yet turn around. The Fed reduced its main interest rate in July and could cut again in September. If buyers respond quickly it could give builders and the economy a lift. But housing is not the only warning sign. Manufacturing activity also tends to falter before other parts of an economy. Durable goods like cars or appliances pile up when credit is costlier. In the previous cycle, employment in durable-goods manufacturing peaked in June , about a year and a half before the onset of recession. This year has been another brutal one for industry. Since last December manufacturing output has fallen by 1.
Rather ominously, hours worked—considered to be a leading economic indicator—are declining. But not all. Domestic vehicle sales have fallen in recent months, suggesting that Americans are getting more nervous about making big purchases. In some sectors, technological change makes it difficult to interpret the data. Soaring employment in oil industries used to be a bad sign for the American economy, since hiring in the sector tended to accompany consumer-crushing spikes in oil prices. But America now produces almost as much oil as it consumes, thanks to the shale-oil revolution.
A recent fall in employment and hours in oil extraction may be a bad omen rather than a good one. By contrast, a fall in retail employment was once unambiguously bad news.
But retail work in America has been in decline for two and a half years; ongoing shrinkage may not signal recession, but the structural economic shift towards e-commerce. Other signals are less ambiguous. Since December it has fallen by 30, jobs. Even if America avoids a recession, the present slowdown may prove politically consequential. Weakness in some sectors, like retail, is spread fairly evenly across the country. But in others, like construction or, especially, manufacturing, the nagging pain of the moment is more concentrated see map. It is now among a modest but growing number of states experiencing falling employment: a list which also includes Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
The Growing Risk of a Recession and Crisis by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate
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It is not recession, economy is growing but at slower pace. Question is why
In U. While Nafta has been partially renegotiated, the new U.
These days, almost every manufactured good is the product of a global value chain that crosses multiple national borders. The dispute between the U. The importance of getting some sort of trade deal that lowers trade barriers, and gives U. Similarly, imports fell 7. And Singapore which is heavily dependent on trade, saw its gross domestic product unexpectedly shrink an annualized 3.
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The impact of the trade war may be seen in U. S second-quarter earnings when reporting starts next week. The negative outlook comes after a 0. The most straightforward reason for this shift is simple — we project poor returns. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates at its next meeting in late July and possibly again later this year. Some analysts remain optimistic though, arguing that a pre-emptive interest rate cut as insurance against recession can work.
Our view remains is the best analog for and argues this year is the start of a new bull market — I know it sounds odd. With trade tensions escalating, here are 5 things to know about this earnings season. Economic Calendar Tax Withholding Calculator. Retirement Planner.
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