World Economic Outlook, April 2006: Globalization and Inflation: World Economic and Financial Surveys
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The weaker the regulations in the country, the more susceptible it is to risk. Stock market losses also had a sharp impact on countries like Chile, whose pension funds include shares from the industrialised countries. According to the World Bank, capital flows to the developing countries sank to USD billion in In the previous year they had still amounted to nearly USD 1, billion see table 1.
The Institute of International Financeconfirmed the pronounced reverse and in June predicted capital flows in the current year in vigorously emerging markets 28 threshold countries of USD billion, less than half the figure for USD billion and only one-fifth of the flow in which amounted to USD billion IIF Above all, the countries in Eastern Europe, and particularly Russia and Ukraine, were very hard hit. The withdrawal of foreign capital led to devaluation of currencies in the developing countries.
Investors transferred their funds to supposedly lower-risk countries. Poorer economic prospects kept investment plans down. Planned takeovers 5 were postponed or annulled. The credit crunch rendered the financing of such projects increasingly difficult. Table 1: Capital flows to the developing countries, in USD billions. Abbreviation used in the table: e: estimate. In there was even a net withdrawal of credits. Towards the end of taking up loans by governments and private enterprises in developing countries was virtually at a standstill.
There was a notable rise in risk premiums and rates of interest for developing countries on the bond markets. Countries where the proportion of remittances in the capital flow was considerable, such as Central American States and India, were particularly hard hit World Bank ; Awad ; Burki and Mordasini The standstill or reverse in remittances was often coupled with a freeze in engagement of foreign labour or even the repatriation of foreign workers.
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According to OECD, should the quantitative targets set for be achieved, the member countries would have to increase their aid even further. Donor States with substantial budget deficits and mounting public debt downgrade the priority of development aid.
The Financial and Economic Crisis and Developing Countries
The fall in growth in China and India also entailed a drop in their demand for energy and mineral raw materials, particularly from Africa. The 49 poorest developing countries saw their export income reduced by In view of its proximity to the US, Mexico is a significant example. The Bangladeshi monthly growth rates for textile exports decreased until April ; since then they have been negative.
In Kenya the central bank warned of a fall in exports of flowers. The tourist destinations in the Caribbean and Africa were faced with slumps in income. The higher the proportion of exports in the gross domestic product GDP of a country, the harder the impact of dwindling demand during a crisis. A country where a single sector accounts for a high proportion of the economy was particularly susceptible to a clumping risk, as in the case of the Slovak Republic with its automotive industry and Ukraine with its steel industry. At all events, the impact of the crisis on the poor countries did not hit the headlines the way bank bailouts and toxic securities did.
Consequently, some of them are better armed against the crisis than they were on previous occasions. These countries are not exposed to the crisis without any protection whatever. Many governments in the developing countries have undertaken measures according to their own powers. They have strengthened their regional cooperation with one another.
World Economic Outlook
They were urged to act by the non-governmental organisations and numerous academic powers. Some have high international currency reserves, others have a substantial inland market. However, many countries had already been severely depleted by the food and energy crises. Countries with substantial international currency reserves and a low budget deficit, like China, were in a position to do so. China announced a CNY 4 billion programme some EUR billion for the years and to be invested in domestic infrastructure, social security, technology, environment and education.
Ortiz posted an analysis of fiscal stimulation plans in 43 industrialised and developing countries as per March Ortiz However, a procedure based on individual programmes for each country was considered insufficient, and a multilateral, coordinated approach was called for. Most developing countries had and still have a clearly lower financial-political scope for stimulation programmes and social measures to protect the poorest. Higher bilateral aid and liquidity aid from the international financing institutions could significantly expand the range of options for such countries.
India does have considerable international currency reserves to call on, but it also has high fiscal deficits which leave little room for increased expenditure. Consequently, India put the emphasis on monetary measures, in particular facilitating credit access options for producers. For many developing countries, however, these money policy measures are strictly limited because easement in interest policy impacts the exchange rate of their currency and the rate of inflation.
Some countries, in contrast, have introduced selective trade restrictions on non-essential luxury goods.
Monetary Policy in a Global Environment
The pronounced growth of past years will be somewhat slowed but will continue, according to Khalil Hamdani, Special Adviser of the South Centre in Geneva Hamdani Also under discussion is an expansion on the lines of a monetary union or a monetary stabilisation fund Ugarteche and Ortiz In April the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas group of Latin American States resolved on a joint monetary council, a reference currency for their inter-State trade, a chamber for payment compensation and a reserve fund for trade transactions Cassen South-South projects are being increasingly funded by ODA.
It is always a question of the reform of the international financial system, acquisition of additional liquidity, control and regulation of markets and the specific competences of a wide range of institutions. The G assumed an incontestable role. Non-governmental organisations throughout the world played an active part in these discussions and published numerous documents. Many in the academic world were concerned with these issues. He received the backing of the Group of 77 G and many civil society organisations. In vain! The UN and its sub-organisations did put forward analyses, staged conferences and seminars and proposed measures, but the more important role fell to the G and the Bretton Woods institutions.
But the food, energy and financial crises played a significant role throughout the preparatory phase and had a marked influence on the conference and the resolutions taken. The timing of the conference proved unfortunate. The closing document described the dramatic global situation for the most part pertinently but remained vague with a view to concrete action.
Nevertheless, after hard negotiations the Doha conference did resolve to hold a highest-level UN conference on the financial crisis and its impact on the poorest countries in Further to a comprehensive analysis section, in very clear language for a UN document, the report also included numerous proposals for measures. Thus, the commission urgently proposed a globally coordinated stimulation policy and demanded more financial aid for developing countries. A new global credit organisation would be necessary for this purpose. The Stiglitz commission further demanded a new international reserve currency and a comprehensive reform of the international financing institutions.
Also necessary is a global council for economic coordination on the lines of an economic security council. This report, together with other analyses submitted, was discussed in-depth at a special UN General Assembly event.
However, the preparatory process proved difficult; just determining the modalities took several weeks. The conference was first postponed and then rescheduled for the end of June. With considerable effort, they did manage to produce a closing document UNO b with plenty of vague phrasing and no concrete plans of action. That was the result of an embittered struggle between the industrialised countries and the Group of 77, the latter backed up by strong commitment on the part of the non-governmental organisations.
In the end only very few heads of State and government from the industrialised countries attended the conference eventually held from 24 to 26 June. In contrast, there was nothing substantially new with a view to novel and additional instruments in development financing. The document recognised the necessity of political leeway for the developing countries, though without going into the conditionality issue.
The paper further proposed that additional special IMF drawing rights should be admitted, primarily for the developing countries. In the combating of international tax evasion and illicit capital flows, the document did not go beyond the principles already established in Doha. This strengthens the UN claim to a strong voice on global economic and financial issues.
Rapid Spread of Crisis Reflects Close Global Economic Ties
And with this, the industrialised countries have taken the changed global economic power structure into account. The financial crisis further accelerated this development.
The G put itself on the throne, rendering the legitimacy of decisions with global impact questionable. Like the Netherlands and Spain, it does not even have observer status. Previously the meetings had involved the individual ministers of finance and the heads of the issuing banks. In particular, the direct interests of the poor countries were, for the most part, not taken into consideration, although the final declaration did mention the necessity of supporting the threshold and developing countries.
They would have to obtain access to sufficient financial resources. The declaration called on the IMF to be flexible in applying its credit instruments. The World Bank and multilateral development banks should use all their resources, and if necessary increase them, to support the poor countries. There were no concrete courses of action in favour of the developing countries; the phraseology remained vague. The major threshold countries integrated in the G proved to be ineffective pioneers for the poorer developing countries. However, the latter hope to be able to benefit indirectly from the incipient technical reform process, e.
The World Bank and multilateral development banks would increase their loans to low-income countries by USD billion. The capital basis would be broadened proportionately. A further USD billion should be made available to finance trade. IMF and World Bank institutional reforms that have already been initiated should be speeded up and extended. In contrast, various comments on the results with respect to the development aspects were cautiously optimistic. The aid organisation added critically that, however, this would be for the most part in the form of loans and not gifts.
Oxfam called for expeditious implementation. The voting reform and other governance questions remained mired in generalities. There was no call for a new IMF and World Bank policy; the strict conditionality of loans was only mildly modified see below. At the same time the summit emphasised that reforms of the IMF and World Bank mandate, mission and governance should be continued. The conference also presented two extensive representations in table form of progress made, both with a fundamentally positive appraisal of what had been achieved G Woods did acknowledge IMF efforts for increased inflows of funds.
However, it criticised the fact that the G had not yet provided the funds pledged. Aid resources for the developing countries are linked to disadvantageous conditions.